Okutambulizibwa: Ekiseera ky'Okuzannya ne Martingale
Ddoola kkumi ku mmyufu, ezikubisibwaamu emirundi ebiri oluvannyuma lwa buli kufiirwa, ku mmeeza erina ekkomo lya $500. Okwetooloola ku kwetooloola, nga mw'otwalidde n'okwetooloola okukikomya.
Ekiseera ky'okuzannya ekigezesebwa mu nkola ya Martingale okuva ku ssente z'okuzannyisa $1,000. Okuwangula okutono amakumi ana mu kumu, olwo okufiirwa mukaaga okwaddiriŋŋana ne zzaala ey'omusanvu n'egaanibwa. Ekiseera kiggwa nga kiri wansi $220 oluvannyuma lw'okuba waggulu $410, era ekyo enkola kye ekola.
Enteekateeka
Siba $10 ku emmyufuzzaalaEmmyufuZzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamba 18 emmyufu. Mu Lufalansa: rouge.Soma byonna →. Oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa, kubisaamu emirundi ebiri. Oluvannyuma lw'okuwangula, ddayo ku $10. Ekkomo ly'emmeezaemmeezaEkkomo ly'emmeezaZzaala esinga obutono n'esinga obunene ekkirizibwa. Ekkomo ery'waggulu lye liyimiriza enkola ez'okukubisaamu bbiri.Soma byonna → $500, kale ssente za zzaala ziba 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 olwo zzaala ya $640 emmeeza gy'egenda okugaana. Okufiirwa mukaaga okuddiriŋŋana kumenya enkola; buli kugezaako kulina (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% okukikola, era ekiseera eky'okwetooloola 100 kirimu okugezaako nga 50. Okusuubirwa: obusoboka nga 60% okumenyeka mu kwetooloola 100, n'okufiirwa $630 bwe kibaawo.
Okwetooloola 1–30
MartingaleenteekateekaMartingaleOkulinnyisa zzaala okukubisaamu zzaala bbiri oluvannyuma lwa buli kufiirwa. Laba ekitundu ky'Enteekateeka za Zzaala okumanya ky'ekola ne ky'etakola.Soma byonna → eya bulijjo: okufiirwa okuva ku kumu okutuuka ku kusatu okuddiriŋŋana, buli kibinja nga kikomezebwa okuwangula okuvaamu +$10. Ku kwetooloola 30 tubadde n'okuwangula 17, buli kumu nga kumaliriza olunyiriri, era tuli waggulu $170. Zzaala esinze obunene okutuusa kati yali $80 oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa kusatu. Kiwulikika ng'ekyuma ekikuba ssente za $10.
Okwetooloola 31–60
Ebifaanana bwe bityo, n'olunyiriri lumu olw'okufiirwa kuna (ssente za zzaala okutuuka ku $160, olwo okuwangula) olwateeka $310 ku mmeeza akaseera katono ne kiwulikika ng'obuvumu. Oluvannyuma lw'okwetooloola 60: ennyiriri 41 zaggwa, waggulu $410, era ssente z'okuzannyisassenteSsente z'okuzannyisaOmugatte gwa ssente ezaawulibwa ku lw'okuzannya. Okuddukanya ssente z'okuzannyisa kwe kusalawo omuwendo gw'oteeka mu kabi ku buli zzaala ne mu buli kiseera ky'okuzannya.Soma byonna → zaakka wansi ddala ku $1,040. Ekifaananyi ky'ebiseera byonna ebya Martingale kifaanana bwe kiti okumala ebbanga eddene.
Okwetooloola 61–66
F F F F F F. Ssente za zzaala 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 zifiiriddwa. Zzaala eddako yandibadde $640; ekkomo lya $500. Enkola emenyese. Tusobola okusiba $500 (era bw'ewangula, tukyali wansi $130 mu lunyiriri) oba okuddayo ku $10 ne tukkiriza okufiirwa. Ennamba enzirugavuzzaalaEnzirugavuZzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamba 18 enzirugavu. Mu Lufalansa: noir.Soma byonna → oba zeeronnamuzigaZeeroEkinnya kimu ekya kiragala ekitabikkibwa zzaala ya emu ku emu, eya dazeni oba ey'empagi; y'ensibuko y'enkizo ya kaasino. Era eyitibwa: zeero emu, 0.Soma byonna → mukaaga okuddiriŋŋana zirina obusobokaokubalaObusobokaObusoboka bw'ekivaamu, okuva ku 0 okutuuka ku 1 oba 0% okutuuka ku 100%. Ennamba emu: 1/37 = 2.70%.Soma byonna → bwa 1.8% buli lunyiriri. Twali tuzannye ennyiriri nga 45. Obusoboka bw'okutuuka wano wonna mu nnyiriri 45 bwali nga 55%. Si mukisa mubi; kyali kya wakati.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- wakati −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Embalirira
Waggulu $410 oluvannyuma lw'okwetooloola 60, wansi $220 oluvannyuma lwa 66. Ssente zonna ezisibiddwa: nga $2,100 mu kwetooloola 66, nga omuzannyi asiba $10 buli mulundi yandisibye $660. Okufiirwa okusuubirwaokubalaOkufiirwa okusuubirwaOmuwendo ogusuubirwa nga gukubisiddwamu ssente zonna ezisibiddwa; ssente ez'okufiirwa ku kigero mu kiseera ky'okuzannya oba mu kiseera ekimu.Soma byonna → ku $2,100 ez'omugatte gwa zzaalassenteOmugatte gwa zzaalaOmugatte gwa ssente zonna ezisibiddwa mu kiseera ky'okuzannya oba mu bbanga, nga mw'otwalidde n'amagoba agaddamu okusibwa. Era guyitibwa: handle, action.Soma byonna → kwe $57; ekyaffe ekyabaddewo −$220 kiri nga kimu kya kusatu eky'ekipimo ky'enjawukanaokubalaEkipimo ky'enjawukanaEkikolo kya kkubo bbiri eky'enjawulo y'ebivaamu; ebbanga ery'abulijjo ekivuddemu we kiba okuva ku muwendo ogusuubirwa.Soma byonna → wansi waakyo, ekitali kya kwewuunya eri enkola erina ebivaamu ebirina omukira omuwanvu ku kkono. Singa twakoma ku kwetooloola 60 n'ekkomo ly'amagobaenteekateekaEkkomo ly'amagobaEkiruubirirwa ky'amagoba ekyateekebwawo edda, ky'otuukako n'okomya ekiseera ky'okuzannya.Soma byonna → erya $400, twandigenze nga tuli waggulu $410, era ekiseera ekiddako kyandibadde ne 1.8% y'emu buli lunyiriri.
Ekiseera kino kye kiraga
Martingale ekyusa zzaala ya 48.65% n'egifuula olunyiriri oluwangula 98% ku nnyiriri zaalwo era olufiirwa yunitissenteYunitiSsente za zzaala ez'entandikwa enkola oba omuzannyi z'akozesa. Okulinnyisa zzaala kunnyonnyolwa mu yuniti kusobole okukola ku mmeeza yonna.Soma byonna → 63 ku 2% ezisigadde. Tekyusa kufiirwa kusuubirwa ku buli ddoola; ekubisaamu ddoola. Omuzannyi asiba omuwendo gumu eyali ku lusegere lwaffe yasiba kimu kya kusatu era n'afiirwa, ku kigero, kimu kya kusatu. Omuzannyi akozesa enkola eno okumala omwaka ajja kuwangula obuwungeezi obusinga naye afiirwe omwaka.
Okufiirwa okuddiriŋŋana kujja emirundi emeka
Zzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamuziga wa zeero emu efiirwa okwetooloola 19 ku 37. Buli lunyiriri bwe busoboka nti okwetooloola okuddiriŋŋana kwonna kufiirwa, n'ebyo omuzannyi wa Martingale, akubisaamu bbiri oluvannyuma lwa buli kufiirwa, by'abeera afiiriddwa olwo.
| okufiirwa okuddiriŋŋana | obusoboka | nga 1 ku | ebifiiriddwa okutuusa kati | zzaala eddako |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Obusoboka buba 19/37 nga bukubisibwamu bwokka omulundi gumu ku buli kufiirwa, nga bubalibwa okuva ku kwetooloola kumu okumanyiddwa. Ekiseera ky'okuzannya ekiwanvu kirimu okwetooloola kungi awayinza okutandikira okufiirwa okw'engeri eyo, kale mu kiro kimu kisoboka nnyo okusinga olunyiriri olumu bwe lulaga.
Ebibuuzo
Okufiirwa mwenda kwe kugimenya mu kifo kya mukaaga: 0.25% buli lunyiriri, ne $5,110 ezifiirwa bwe kibaawo. Akagwo katono okubaawo, kawanvu okusingawo, −2.70% y'emu.
Yandiwangudde 48.65% ku biseera era n'ereka olunyiriri ku −$130 ne bwe kityo. Tewali kya kukola kirungi oluvannyuma lwa Martingale emenyese; waliwo ssente za zzaala z'olonda eziddako zokka.
Yee, ku kiseera ekyo. Si ku kigero ky'ebiseera byonna.
Okwesanyusa n'Okubala
Gezaako bino ggwe kennyini okusooka. Buli kugonjoola kuzingiddwa; kuggulewo ng'oli mwetegefu.
Ku mmeeza ya $1 okutuuka ku $500, omuzannyi wa MartingaleenteekateekaMartingaleOkulinnyisa zzaala okukubisaamu zzaala bbiri oluvannyuma lwa buli kufiirwa. Laba ekitundu ky'Enteekateeka za Zzaala okumanya ky'ekola ne ky'etakola.Soma byonna → atandika ne $1 ku mmyufuzzaalaEmmyufuZzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamba 18 emmyufu. Mu Lufalansa: rouge.Soma byonna → ku nnamuziga wa zeeronnamuzigaZeeroEkinnya kimu ekya kiragala ekitabikkibwa zzaala ya emu ku emu, eya dazeni oba ey'empagi; y'ensibuko y'enkizo ya kaasino. Era eyitibwa: zeero emu, 0.Soma byonna → emu. Okufiirwa mmeka okuddiriŋŋana okuyimiriza okukubisaamu bbiri, afiiriddwa mmeka mu kiseera ekyo, era kibaawo emirundi emeka?
Laga okugonjoola
Eky'okuddamu Okufiirwa mwenda: $511 zifiiriddwa, era zzaala eddako yandibadde $512. Kibaawo omulundi gumu mu nnyiriri nga 403.
Ssente za zzaala ziri 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 ne 256: awamu $511. Ey'ekkumi yandibadde $512, okusukka ekkomo. Zzaala ya $500 ewangula ekyaleka omuzannyi ng'afiiriddwa $11; efiirwa emuleka ng'afiiriddwa $1,011.
Emmyufu efiirwa n'obusoboka 19/37, n'olwekyo okufiirwa mwenda okuddiriŋŋana kulina obusoboka bwa (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, omulundi gumu mu nnyiriri nga 403. Buli lunyiriri oluwedde luwangula $1, n'olwekyo omuzannyi asuubira nga $402 ez'okuwangula okutono nga tannafiirwa $511 omulundi ogwo gumu, era 2.70% ku byonna ebisibiddwa bikyafiirwa ku kigero.
Ku nnamuziga wa zeero bbiri obusoboka buli (20/38)⁹, omulundi gumu mu nga 323. Bollman (2021) awandiika “nga 1 ku 833”, ekyo kye (18/38)⁹, obusoboka bw'okuwangula mwenda okuddiriŋŋana.
Eky'okusesa
Okuwangula okutono amakumi ana mu kumu n'okufiirwa okunene kumu. Eyo y'enkola yonna.
Ensibuko
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”