Enteekateeka ya zzaala · Okulinnyisa oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa · edakiika 9

Enteekateeka ya Martingale mu Roulette

Enteekateeka ya Martingale mu roulette ekubisaamu zzaala emirundi ebiri oluvannyuma lwa buli kufiirwa, n'eddayo ku zzaala ey'entandikwa oluvannyuma lw'okuwangula. Buli kuwangula kuzzaawo okufiirwa kwonna okwasooka nga kwogeddwako yuniti emu ey'entandikwa. Olupapula luno lulaga ekyo kye kikola ku ssente z'okuzannyisa, n'ensonga lwaki tekisobola kukyusa kufiirwa okusuubirwa.

Eky'okuddamu ekimpiTewangula nnamuziga. Ng'enteekateeka ya roulette ey'okukubisaamu emirundi ebiri, Martingale ereeta okuwangula okutono okungi n'okufiirwa okunene okw'olumu. Mu kwetooloola kwonna, okufiirwa okusuubirwa kukyali 2.70% ku mugatte gwa ssente zonna ezisibiddwa, era olw'okuba nti okulinnyisa kusiba ssente nnyingi, okufiirwa okusuubirwa ku buli kiseera ky'okuzannya kusinga okwa zzaala ey'omuwendo gumu, so si kukendeera.

Enkola ya Martingale mu roulette ekola etya?

Fiirwa, okubisemu emirundi ebiri. Wangula, oddeyo ku zzaala ey'entandikwa. Eyo y'enkola yonna. Ne zzaala ey'entandikwa eya $10 n'ekkomo ly'emmeeza lya $500, olunyiriri luggwawo oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa emirundi mukaaga. Empagi esembayo bwe busoboka obw'okutuuka ku ddaala eryo ku zzaala ya emu ku emu, nga buli kufiirwa kulina obusoboka bwa 19/37.

okufiirwa #zzaala eddakoomugatte oguli mu kabip(okutuuka)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Zzaala ey'entandikwa $10, ekkomo ly'emmeeza $500. Oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa emirundi mukaaga zzaala eddako eba $640, esukka ekkomo: okulinnyisa kumenyeka nga $630 zifiiriddwa. Obusoboka bw'okufiirwa emirundi mukaaga nga kuddiriŋŋana ku mmyufu buli (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, nga omulundi gumu mu kugezaako 55.

Tambula mu nkola

Okufiirwa kukubisaamu bbiri ssente za zzaala. Okuwangula kuddayo ku ntandikwa.

ssente za zzaala eziddako1ekivuddemu okutuusa kati0okwetooloola0

Ssente za zzaala n'ebivuddemu biri mu yuniti za zzaala ey'omusingi.

Ekiseera ky'okuzannya kifaanana kitya?

Amadaala amatono agalinnya, oluvannyuma ekinnya ekikweke. Mu Martingale ya roulette buli lunyiriri lw'okukubisaamu oluggwa lwongerako zzaala emu ey'entandikwa, kale layini erinnya mpolampola. Olunyiriri olutuuka ku kkomo lya $500 luddizaawo $630 omulundi gumu: amadaala 63 ku ago.

Ebiseera kkumi ebya Martingale, entandikwa $10, ekkomo $500ekivuddemu ku ntandikwa

ebiseera 1,000 × okwetooloola 500 · kakobe p10/p25/p75/p90, bbululu omutangaavu wakati, ebyokulabirako 83 ebizibu okulaba · tambuza ku kipande olabe percentile ku kwetooloola

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
wakati −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

ebiseera 1,000 × okwetooloola 500 · omusittale gwa y gukomezeddwa ku percentile 1–99 (enkomerero −$1,000 okutuuka +$2,640) · okwetooloola 500 · omusingi $10 · emu ku emu

Buli layini kiseera kimu eky'okuzannya ekya zzaala ya emu ku emu ku ssente z'okuzannyisa eza $1,000. Okulinnya okuwanvu, okugwa okw'amangu.

Amadaala amatono agalinnya, oluvannyuma ekinnya ekikweke ekibimira byonna omulundi gumu.

Ekyokugezesa

Buli nteekateeka eddukanya ebiseera by'okuzannya 2,000 ebya zzaala ya emu ku emu ku ssente z'okuzannyisa eza $1,000. Ebivaamu bikyuka amangu ddala.

Zzaala ey'omusingi

Ekkomo ly'emmeeza

Okwetooloola mu buli kiseera

Ebivudde mu biseera · ebiseera 2,000 · okwetooloola 100 · omusingi $10 · ekkomo $500okufiirwa ← | → amagoba

−$1,000$0+$650

teeka akasonga ku mulongooti · emimyufu ge biseera ebifiiriddwa, egya kiragala ebiwangudde, omweru gubuna ku $0

ebiseera ebiri mu magoba

40.8%

ekivuddemu ekya wakati

−$130

ekivuddemu eky'ekigero

−$66.44

okulinnyisa kwamenyeka

59.3% ku biseera

percentile ya 5

−$1,000

okukka okusinga obunene okwa wakati

−$650

Ebiseera ebisinga bikoma nga biri waggulu katono (40.8%), era ekyo kye kisikiriza. Eky'ekigero kiri wansi wa zeero (−$66.44) kubanga ebiseera ebifiiriddwa binene: okulinnyisa zzaala kwatuuka ku kkomo ly'emmeeza mu 59.3% ku biseera. Omuzannyi wa zzaala ey'omuwendo gumu $10 mu kwetooloola okwo kwe kumu asuubira okufiirwa nga $27.

Okufiirwa okuddiriŋŋana kujja emirundi emeka

Zzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamuziga wa zeero emu efiirwa okwetooloola 19 ku 37. Buli lunyiriri bwe busoboka nti okwetooloola okuddiriŋŋana kwonna kufiirwa, n'ebyo omuzannyi wa Martingale, akubisaamu bbiri oluvannyuma lwa buli kufiirwa, by'abeera afiiriddwa olwo.

Zzaala ey'omusingi

okufiirwa okuddiriŋŋana	obusoboka	nga 1 ku	ebifiiriddwa okutuusa kati	zzaala eddako
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Obusoboka buba 19/37 nga bukubisibwamu bwokka omulundi gumu ku buli kufiirwa, nga bubalibwa okuva ku kwetooloola kumu okumanyiddwa. Ekiseera ky'okuzannya ekiwanvu kirimu okwetooloola kungi awayinza okutandikira okufiirwa okw'engeri eyo, kale mu kiro kimu kisoboka nnyo okusinga olunyiriri olumu bwe lulaga.

Olunyiriri lw'okufiirwa kkumi na ttaano lujja nga omulundi gumu mu kugezaako 22,000. Ekyo kiwulikika ng'ekitaliiko kabi. Si bwe kiri, olw'ensonga bbiri. Buli kwetooloola kutandika okugezaako okupya, era akawungeezi kamu kaba n'okwetooloola bikumi na bikumi. Era tewali atuuka ku kkumi na ttaano: okuva ku ntandikwa ya $10, ekkomo lya $500 likomya okukubisaamu oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa emirundi mukaaga, okujja nga omulundi gumu mu kugezaako 55.

Lwaki tesobola kukyusa mikisa?

Omuwendo ogusuubirwa gugattibwa. Buli zzaala ssekinnoomu bw'eba n'okusuubirwa kwa −2.70% ku ssente zaayo, kale olunyiriri lwonna olwa zzaala, ne bw'olonda ssente za zzaala otya, lulina okusuubirwa kwa −2.70% ku mugatte gwa ssente ezisibiddwa. Okulonda ssente za zzaala kuyinza okwesigama ku bivuddemu ebyayita; tekuyinza kwesigama ku kiddako.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ elondebwa nga okwetooloola i tekunnabaawo; Xᵢ = ±1 tekwatagana na bᵢ

Ebirowoozo ebikyamu ebimanyiddwa

“Weetaaga kuwangula omulundi gumu gwokka okuzzaawo buli kimu.”

Kituufu munda mu kulinnyisa okuggwa. Okulinnyisa okutaggwa, olw'ekkomo ly'emmeeza oba olwa ssente z'okuzannyisa, kufiirwa olunyiriri lwonna, era olunyiriri olwo luba lunene olw'engeri gye lutegekeddwamu.

“Ng'olina ssente z'okuzannyisa ezimala obunene, teyinza kulemererwa.”

Ekkomo ly'emmeeza liyimiriza okukubisaamu nga ssente z'okuzannyisa ezisinga tezinnaggwaawo. Awatali kkomo, ssente z'okuzannyisa ezeetaagisa zeeyongera mu bwangu obw'amaanyi ennyo, ate amagoba ku buli lunyiriri olujjuvu ne gasigala nga yuniti emu ey'entandikwa.

“Okufiirwa emirundi mukaaga nga kuddiriŋŋana kumpi tekusoboka.”

Ku mmyufu kibaawo mu 1.83% ku bibinja by'okwetooloola mukaaga. Mu kiseera ky'okuzannya eky'okwetooloola 200, otera okulaba waakiri olunyiriri lumu olw'okufiirwa mukaaga.

Eky'okusesa

Okuwangula okutono okungi, n'okufiirwa okunene okumu okutatera kujja. Era ggwe kennyini osasula okuliyirira.

Ekisalibwawo mu kubalaEnkola ya Martingale mu roulette ewanyisiganya obusoboka obunene obw'amagoba amatono n'obusoboka obutono obw'okufiirwa okunene. Eba ng'enshuwalensi etundiddwa mu ngeri ekyamu: ofuna ssente entono ez'enshuwalensi ebiro ebisinga, ate ggwe kennyini n'osasula okuliyirira okunene okutatera kubaawo. Eyongera ssente ezisibiddwa mu buli kiseera ky'okuzannya, kale eyongera n'okufiirwa okusuubirwa mu buli kiseera. Tekendeeza era tesobola kukendeeza nkizo ya kaasino. Bw'oba ng'okozesa enteekateeka ya Martingale ku roulette, manya nga bukyali w'egwa: ne zzaala ey'entandikwa eya $10 n'ekkomo lya $500, kwe kufiirwa emirundi mukaaga nga kuddiriŋŋana, ekintu ekibaawo 1.8% ku buli kugezaako. Laba Okuddukanya ssente z'okuzannyisa ne Ekkomo ly'okufiirwa / ekkomo ly'amagoba.