Obusoboka bw'Emitendera gy'Ebivuddemu mu Roulette
Okuddiŋŋana okuwanvu okwa langi emu kutera okubaawo. Era tekulina makulu gonna ku kwetooloola okuddako.
Emmyufu ttaano omuddiriŋŋanwa: 2.7%. Kkumi: 0.074%. Mu kiseera ky'okuzannya eky'okwetooloola 200, okuddiŋŋana kwa mukaaga okwa langi emu kulabika emirundi egisinga.
Okufiirwa okuddiriŋŋana kujja emirundi emeka
Zzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamuziga wa zeero emu efiirwa okwetooloola 19 ku 37. Buli lunyiriri bwe busoboka nti okwetooloola okuddiriŋŋana kwonna kufiirwa, n'ebyo omuzannyi wa Martingale, akubisaamu bbiri oluvannyuma lwa buli kufiirwa, by'abeera afiiriddwa olwo.
| okufiirwa okuddiriŋŋana | obusoboka | nga 1 ku | ebifiiriddwa okutuusa kati | zzaala eddako |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Obusoboka buba 19/37 nga bukubisibwamu bwokka omulundi gumu ku buli kufiirwa, nga bubalibwa okuva ku kwetooloola kumu okumanyiddwa. Ekiseera ky'okuzannya ekiwanvu kirimu okwetooloola kungi awayinza okutandikira okufiirwa okw'engeri eyo, kale mu kiro kimu kisoboka nnyo okusinga olunyiriri olumu bwe lulaga.
Okuddiŋŋana okumu
ObusobokaokubalaObusobokaObusoboka bw'ekivaamu, okuva ku 0 okutuuka ku 1 oba 0% okutuuka ku 100%. Ennamba emu: 1/37 = 2.70%.Soma byonna → nti okwetooloola k okuddako kwonna kuba mmyufuzzaalaEmmyufuZzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamba 18 emmyufu. Mu Lufalansa: rouge.Soma byonna → buba (18/37)ᵏ. Bbiri: 23.7%. Ttaano: 2.7%. Kkumi: 0.074%, nga 1 ku 1,350. Abiri: 1 ku bukadde 1.8. Abiri mu mukaaga, ekyali kisingako mu Monte Carlo: 1 ku bukadde 137. Buno bwe busoboka bw'okuddiŋŋana okugere okutandika ku kwetooloola okugere, nga kino kye kibuuzo kumpi tewali n'omu ky'abuuza ddala.
Mu kiseera ky'okuzannya
Ekibuuzo abantu kye bategeeza kiri “okuddiŋŋana kwa k kunaalabika wonna wonna mu kiseera kyange eky'okuzannya?”, era eky'okuddamu kisinga nnyo (18/37)ᵏ kubanga ekiseera ky'okuzannya eky'okwetooloola 200 kiwa ebifo kumpi 200 okuddiŋŋana we kuyinza okutandikira. Okuddiŋŋana kwa mukaaga oba okusingawo okwa langi emu, emmyufu oba enzirugavuzzaalaEnzirugavuZzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamba 18 enzirugavu. Mu Lufalansa: noir.Soma byonna →, kulabika mu kiseera ky'okuzannya eky'okwetooloola 200 nga 94% ku biseera; munaana oba okusingawo nga 47%; kkumi oba okusingawo nga 14%. Londa langi nga tonnatandika, obusoboka ne bukka, okutuuka ku nga 75%, 27% ne 7%. Omuzannyi atuula akawungeezi konna ajja kulaba okuddiŋŋana okuwanvu buli kawungeezi.
Lwaki Martingale efaayo
Buli kulinnyisa zzaalaenteekateekaOkulinnyisa zzaalaEtteeka lyonna erikyusa ssente za zzaala okusinziira ku bivuddemu emabega. Okulinnyisa oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa kuzirinnyisa ng'ofiiriddwa, okulinnyisa oluvannyuma lw'okuwangula kuzirinnyisa ng'owangudde.Soma byonna → oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa kulina obuwanvu bw'okuddiŋŋana obukumenya: okufiirwa mukaaga okuva ku $10 ez'okutandika ku kkomo lya $500, kkumi ku FibonaccienteekateekaFibonacciOkulinnyisa zzaala okugoberera olunyiriri 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: eddaala limu mu maaso oluvannyuma lw'okufiirwa, amadaala abiri emabega oluvannyuma lw'okuwangula.Soma byonna →, ttaano ku kukubisaamu ssatu ku dazenizzaalaDazeni1–12, 13–24 oba 25–36, esasula 2:1.Soma byonna →. Obusoboka bw'okufiirwa mukaaga omuddiriŋŋanwa ku zzaala ya emu ku emu buba (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% buli kugezaako, era ekiseera ky'okuzannya eky'okwetooloola 200 kiyinza okubaamu okugezaako nga 100, kale okumenya kutuuka mu biseera by'okuzannya nga bina ku bitaano eby'obuwanvu obwo. Obusoboka bw'okuddiŋŋana mu roulette y'ensonga lwaki ekiwonvu kino tekiri kya lwa nsonga.
Ennamba ennyokya n'ennyogovu
Okubala kwe kumu kukola ku straight upzzaalaStraight upEnnamba emu yokka, esasula 35:1.Soma byonna →. Mu kwetooloola 300, omuwendo ogusuubirwa ku buli nnamba guba 8.1; ekipimo ky'enjawukanaokubalaEkipimo ky'enjawukanaEkikolo kya kkubo bbiri eky'enjawulo y'ebivaamu; ebbanga ery'abulijjo ekivuddemu we kiba okuva ku muwendo ogusuubirwa.Soma byonna → kiba nga 2.8. Ennamba emu ejja kulaga okujja 15 ate endala 2 olw'omukisa gwokka, buli mulundi. Olubaawo lw'ebivuddemu olwakiza ennamba “ennyokya” lwakiza ntikko ya engabanya ya normal. Laabu ennyonnyola okwetooloola kumeka okwetaagisa ennamba eyokyaenfumoEnnamba eyokyaEnnamba ejjidde emirundi mingi okusinga egisuubirwa mu kiseera ekiyise. Ku nnamuziga omwesimbu tekiraguza kintu kyonna.Soma byonna → nga tennaba na makulu (nkumi na nkumi, okuva ku nnamuziga omu amanyiddwa).
Obutakwatagana kye kikulu kyonna
Emmyufu kkumi omuddiriŋŋanwa tezifuula nzirugavu kusoboka nnyo, era tezifuula mmyufu kusoboka nnyo. Byombi biri 18/37. Okuddiŋŋana kwa mu nnyiriri ez'ebivaamu ebitategeerekeka, era kyandibadde kya kubuusabuusa singa tekuliiyo: olunyiriri lw'okwetooloola 200 olutaliiko kuddiŋŋana kusukka bina lwandibadde bujulizi bw'okukumpanya obusinga ennyo olwo oluliko okuddiŋŋana kwa kkumi na bbiri.
Ensengekera
Ebibuuzo
Enzirugavu 26 mu Monte Carlo nga 18 Agusito 1913 kwe kumanyiddwa ennyo. Emmyufu 32 omuddiriŋŋanwa zaategeezebwa mu kaasino ya Amerika mu 1943. Byombi bikwatagana n'omukisa, okusinziira ku kwetooloola kungi kaasino kwe zikola.
Eri 18/37 mu ngeri zombi. Siba enteekateeka yo ky'egamba, oba tosiba.
Nedda. Okusosola kulabika nga ebinnyaebikozesebwaEkinnyaKimu ku bisenge 37 ebiriko ennamba ku rotor. Era biyitibwa: slot, cup.Soma byonna → ebimu bijja emirundi mingi mu kwetooloola nkumi na nkumi, so si ng'okuddiŋŋana kwa langi.
Okwesanyusa n'Okubala
Gezaako bino ggwe kennyini okusooka. Buli kugonjoola kuzingiddwa; kuggulewo ng'oli mwetegefu.
Okwetooloola kumeka okwa nnamuziga wa Bulaaya okwetaagisa, ku kigero, ennamba zonna 37 nga buli emu ejjiddeko waakiri omulundi gumu?
Laga okugonjoola
Eky'okuddamu Nga okwetooloola 155 ku kigero; median eri 147.
Bala okulinda ennamba empya emu emu. Okwetooloola okusooka bulijjo kulaga ennamba empya. Bw'omala okulaba ennamba 1, ebinnyaebikozesebwaEkinnyaKimu ku bisenge 37 ebiriko ennamba ku rotor. Era biyitibwa: slot, cup.Soma byonna → 36 ku 37 bipya, kale ennamba empya eddako etwala okwetooloola 37/36 ku kigero. Bw'omala okulaba ennamba k, etwala 37/(37 − k).
Gatta okulinda: 37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + … + 37/1 = 37 × (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/37) ≈ 37 × 4.20 = okwetooloola 155.5.
Ekisinga obungi kiri ku nkomerero. Ennamba esembayo yokka etwala okwetooloola 37 ku kigero, ate ettaano ezisembayo nga 85. Ku nnamuziga wa Amerika omugatte gwe gumu guwa nga 161. Kino kye kizibu kya coupon collector; ekigero kye kimu kiva mu kubala okwa bulijjo.
Mu kwetooloola 37 okwa nnamuziga wa Bulaaya, okwetooloola kumu ku buli kinnya, osuubira okulaba ennamba ez'enjawulo mmeka?
Laga okugonjoola
Eky'okuddamu Nga 23.6. Kumpi ekimu kya kusatu eky'ennamba, nga 13, tezijja n'akatono.
Twala ennamba emu, ka tugambe 17. Ku buli kwetooloola tejja n'obusoboka bwa 36/37, kale tejja ku kwetooloola kwonna 37 n'obusoboka bwa (36/37)³⁷ ≈ 0.363.
Buli nnamba erina obusoboka bwe bumu, kale ku kigero ennamba 37 × 0.363 ≈ 13.4 tezijja ate 37 − 13.4 ≈ 23.6 zijja, nnyingi ku zo emirundi ebiri oba okusingawo.
Abazannyi ba roulette kino bakiyita law of thirds. Si tteeka, kubala kwa kuddamu kwokka: mu mutendera omuwanvu nga nnamuziga, nga ekimu kya kusatu eky'ennamba tezijja, ku nnamuziga ow'obwenkanya nga ku mulala gwonna. Ku binnya 38 omugabo nagwo guli (37/38)³⁸ ≈ 0.363; ku nnamuziga omunene gutebenkera okumpi ne 1/e ≈ 0.368.
Mukwano gwo akulaga enkalala bbiri eza langi 50, mmyufuzzaalaEmmyufuZzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamba 18 emmyufu. Mu Lufalansa: rouge.Soma byonna → oba nzirugavuzzaalaEnzirugavuZzaala ya emu ku emu ku nnamba 18 enzirugavu. Mu Lufalansa: noir.Soma byonna →, buli lumu nga kigambibwa nti luvudde ku nnamuziga nga zeeronnamuzigaZeeroEkinnya kimu ekya kiragala ekitabikkibwa zzaala ya emu ku emu, eya dazeni oba ey'empagi; y'ensibuko y'enkizo ya kaasino. Era eyitibwa: zeero emu, 0.Soma byonna → ziggyiddwamu. Olumu lukyusa langi emirundi 25 era omutendera gwalwo ogusinga obuwanvu guli mukaaga. Olulala lukyusa emirundi 35 era tegusukka ssatu. Luluwa olwagunjibwa?
Laga okugonjoola
Eky'okuddamu Olw'okubiri. Olukalala olwa ddala lukyusa emirundi nga 24 oba 25. Olukyusa emirundi 35 lulabika nga omulundi gumu ku nkalala 500, ate olutaliimu mutendera gusukka ssatu nga emirundi ebiri ku 100.
Buli langi empya oba eddamu eyasooka oba ekyuka, ekitundu n'ekitundu, kale emikisa 49 egy'okukyuka giwa okukyuka 24.5 ku kigero, okwongerako oba okuggyako nga 3.5. Amakumi asatu mu ttaano gali emitendera esatu egyo waggulu w'ekigero; nnamuziga ow'obwenkanya awa okukyuka okwenkana awo nga omulundi gumu ku nkalala 500.
Emitendera gyogera kye kimu. Olukalala olwa ddala olwa 50 lulimu omutendera gwa nnya oba okusingawo nga 98% ku mirundi, era omutendera gwalwo ogusinga obuwanvu gutera kuba ttaano oba mukaaga.
Abantu abasabiddwa okugunja olukalala olutategeerekeka bakyusa emirundi mingi nnyo, kubanga omutendera gwa nnya oba ttaano gubalabikira ng'enkola. Taylor (2021) alaga akabonero ke kamu mu nkalala z'okukuba sente abayizi ze baagunja: obutategeerekeka obwa ddala bulimu emitendera mingi okusinga abantu bwe basuubira.
Ekitabo ky'engero za kaasino kyogera ku muzannyi ennamba ye gye yajja emirundi etaano omuddiriŋŋanwa ne kikiyita ekyafaayo ekitamenyeddwa. Kino kitono kyenkana wa ku nnamuziga wa Bulaaya? Era kirina kubaawo emirundi emeka awamu mu kaasino emu erimu emmeeza 20, buli emu ng'eyeetoolooza emirundi 40 buli ssaawa, emisana n'ekiro?
Laga okugonjoola
Eky'okuddamu Ennamba eyalangiriddwa emirundi etaano omuddiriŋŋanwa: 1 ku bukadde 69. Ennamba yonna okujja emirundi ena emirala ng'emaze okujja: 1 ku bukadde 1.87. Kaasino eyo eyeetoolooza emirundi nga obukadde 7 buli mwaka, kale erina okulaba omutendera gwa ttaano emirundi esatu oba ena buli mwaka.
Ennamba eyalangiriddwa ejja n'obusoboka bwa 1/37 ku buli kwetooloola, kale etaano omuddiriŋŋanwa birina obusoboka bwa (1/37)⁵ = 1 ku 69,343,957. Naye tewali alangirira nnamba nga tennajja. Kyonna ekisooka okujja, okwetooloola ena okuddako kulina okukiddamu: (1/37)⁴ = 1 ku 1,874,161.
Emmeeza 20 × okwetooloola 40 × essaawa 24 × ennaku 365 = okwetooloola 7,008,000 buli mwaka. Buli kwetooloola kusobola okutandika omutendera, kale kaasino esuubira 7,008,000/1,874,161 ≈ emitendera 3.7 egya ttaano buli mwaka.
Tewali kiwandiiko kitongole kya ngeri eno, era tekyetaagisa: ekintu ekitono ku mmeeza emu kya bulijjo mu kaasino yonna, era engero zigerwa ku mmeeza we kyabeerawo. Olugero luno, mu Goldman (2007), lwali ku nnamuziga wa zeero bbiri, emiwendo we gibeera 1 ku bukadde 79 ne 1 ku bukadde 2.09.
Eky'okusesa
Okuddiŋŋana okuwanvu kwe kulabika kw'ebitategeerekeka.
Ensibuko
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.